Scaling Forecasting: AI Forecasting Tournaments & the Road to Epistemic Security, with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus

Nathan explores the cutting-edge world of AI-powered forecasting with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus. In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, we discuss how AI is revolutionizing prediction markets, the potential for AI to outperform human forecasters, and Metaculus's ambitious new AI forecasting benchmark tournament. Join us for an insightful conversation about the future of decision-making and collective intelligence. Participate in Metaculus' first of its kind bot forecasting tournament: https://www.metaculus.com/aib/ Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 1 to 100 | Hypergrowth Companies Worth Joining Every week we sit down with the founder of a hyper-growth company you should consider joining. Our goal is to give you the inside story behind breakout, early stage companies potentially worth betting your career on. This season, discover how the founders of Modal Labs, Clay, Mercor, and more built their products, cultures, and companies. Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1762756034 Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/70NOWtWDY995C8qDqojxGw RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Second Opinion A new podcast for health-tech insiders from Christina Farr of the Second Opinion newsletter. Join Christina Farr, Luba Greenwood, and Ash Zenooz every week as they challenge industry experts with tough questions about the best bets in health-tech. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1759267211 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv SPONSORS: Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network 80,000 Hours offers free one-on-one career advising for Cognitive Revolution listeners aiming to tackle global challenges, especially in AI. They connect high-potential individuals with experts, opportunities, and personalized career plans to maximize positive impact. Apply for a free call at https://80000hours.org/cognitiverevolution to accelerate your career and contribute to solving pressing AI-related issues. The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://bit.ly/BraveTCR Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off https://www.omneky.com/ Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. CHAPTERS: (00:00:00) About the Show (00:00:22) Sponsor: WorkOS (00:01:22) About the Episode (00:04:47) Introduction and Background (00:08:42) Deger's Journey to Forecasting (00:13:06) Current State of Forecasting (00:20:23) Sponsors: 80,000 Hours | Brave (00:22:55) Overview of Metaculous (00:23:30) AI Forecasting Research Papers (00:35:44) Sponsors: Omneky | Squad (00:37:31) AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament (00:44:01) Improving Forecasting Accuracy (00:51:56) Scoring System and Tournament Rules (01:04:17) AI Forecasting Benchmark Series Details (01:11:03) Tournament Structure and Participation (01:17:07) Consistency in AI Forecasting (01:34:36) Risks and Challenges in Forecasting (01:42:43) Consensus Illusion and Policy Making (01:53:55) Outro