TIP554: Mental Models for Successful Investing w/ John Jennings

On today’s episode, Clay chats with John Jennings about his new book - The Uncertainty Solution.  John Jennings is President and Chief Strategist of St. Louis Trust & Family Office, which has $12 billion dollars in assets under management. He is also a member of the firm’s Management Committee, on its Board of Directors, and also serves on the Investment, Risk Management, and Trust Committees. John works closely with client families, advising them in all areas of wealth management. IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro. 01:38 - Why humans are hard-wired to avoid uncertainty. 06:40 - Mental models we can use to invest more intelligently. 10:08 - How humans tend to react when faced with uncertainty. 16:56 - Why we are wired to quickly come to conclusions and tend to confuse correlation with causation. 27:17 - How the improbable is much more probable than we might expect. 32:13 - Why the economy is not directly correlated with the stock market. 47:51 - Where investing falls on Michael Maubbousin’s Skill vs Luck continuum. 1:00:53 - How behavior biases like loss aversion and overconfidence affect our investment decisions. 1:06:14 - How storytelling can trick us into making poor investment decisions. 1:10:13 - What base rates are and understanding base rates can help us make more intelligent decisions. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members. John’s new book - The Uncertainty Solution. John’s website. John’s firm - St. Louis Trust & Family Office. Check out our newly released TIP Mastermind Community. Check out our recent episode covering the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting or watch the video. Follow Clay on Twitter. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.  SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota CI Financial Sun Life AFR The Bitcoin Way Industrious Briggs & Riley Meyka Public Vacasa American Express iFlex Stretch Studios Range Rover Fundrise USPS Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm